(ZeroHedge)—A CNN panel looked shocked after guest Marc Lotter suggested a significant shortfall in Democrat early voting vs. 2020 portends a bad time for Kamala Harris.
“The math doesn’t work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas,” said Lotter. “They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters.”
“Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000,” he continued, noting that “Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on election day.”
“The margins don’t add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states.”
"The math doesn't work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas."
"They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters."
"Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000."
"Democrats have to win their… pic.twitter.com/zarBQ7RY7o
— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) November 5, 2024
Lotter’s comments come after the Trump campaign touted bullish data showing Republicans gaining ground with the early vote in battleground states vs. the 2020 election cycle.
According to the campaign, new and infrequent voters are leaning more Republican than Democrat based on the latest indications from Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the NY Post reports, citing a source in the camp.
“In those states, Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet” — despite early voting being closed in nearly every state — “and many not having even requested a mail ballot,” the source said, suggesting that Democrat turnout might not be as strong this time around.
According to the Post, here’s some of the data that allies of the campaign have been privately touting – mixed with early-voter information:
Arizona
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 8 points.
Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.
Early voting in the Grand Canyon State closed Nov. 1. Men comprised about 50% of the votes for Republicans and 40% for Democrats, according to the data shared with The Post.
Other groups have reported apparent advantages for Republicans here, too. For instance, there have been 924,524 GOP ballot returns, relative to 736,569 for Democrats, according to early-vote data compiled by UpLift Campaigns.
Georgia
The Peach State doesn’t have voter registration information for its early votes.
Looking at data from Democratic analyst Tom Bonier, the African American early vote and mail turnout dipped 7% relative to 2020.
Early voting in Georgia stopped Nov. 1. Its turnout soared to 4,004,588 both through early voting and absentee voting by mail this year, compared to the 2,697,822 early voters four years ago, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.
Michigan
The Wolverine State similarly lacks voter registration information for its early votes.
But the Trump campaign is touting data suggesting that in-person early voters represent about 32% of the pre-Election Day votes cast and that its supporters typically favor in-person voting. In-person early voting is new in Michigan.
More than 2.58 million of the over 7 million people registered to vote in Michigan have cast early votes, according to data from the Michigan Secretary of State’s Office.
North Carolina
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 1 point.
Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.
This appears to be the first time Republicans have ever clinched the early vote in North Carolina.
Data from Bonier suggests that African American mail and early-vote returns have sunk 22% relative to 2020 here. Men comprised about 37% of the Democratic support and 49% of Republican support.
In-person early voting in the Old North State stopped Nov. 2.
There have been about 4.4 million early votes cast out of the roughly 7.8 million registered voters in North Carolina, including 1,478,496 for Republicans, 1,436,861 for Democrats and 1,524,094 without a party registration, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Nevada
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 4 points.
Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 8 points.
Early in-person voting was closed off Nov. 1. Roughly 42% of Democratic votes came from men and 52% from Republicans.
Across the board, Nevada saw about 1,077,441 voters turn out early, including 406,705 from Republicans and 363,595 from Democrats, according to data.
Pennsylvania
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Democrats up 23 points
Relative to 2020: Republicans are faring 22 points better.
The Trump campaign believes that Democrats’ early-vote advantage in the Keystone State has slipped from past elections, with total absentee ballots plummeting about 29% relative to the 2020 cycle.
There have been at least 1,739,606 early votes cast in Pennsylvania, including 971,615 from Democrats and 571,725 from Democrats, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab data.
Wisconsin
The Badger State lacks voter registration information for its early votes.
Still, the Trump campaign believes that early votes and mail-in ballots have slipped 23% since 2020 and that mail-in ballot requests are down 52% from 2020.
There have been at least 1,338,728 early votes cast in Wisconsin, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. There are more than 4.7 million registered voters there.
Approximately 76 million early votes have been cast across the country, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab vs. 252 million in the 2020 election, in which early voting generally favored Democrats, while in-person voting leaned Republican.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
