Needless to say, this could have a huge impact on the upcoming election.  If store shelves are quite bare in early November, millions of Americans will be in a very bad mood when they go to vote.

If it happens, the strike will begin on Tuesday.  This is the first time that we have seen a strike of this nature in nearly 50 years…

Thousands of longshoremen at ports from New England to Texas are set to strike early Tuesday in the first walkout of its kind in almost half a century, freezing commercial shipping on a massive scale and disrupting the national economy weeks before the presidential election.

A strike would be the biggest disruption to the flow of goods in and out of the country since the height of the pandemic. Even a short-lived work stoppage would snarl shipping and create havoc in supply chains for weeks. Cargo ranging from cars to electronics, from food to furniture, would be stuck on ships offshore. Each day a strike lasts could cost the U.S. economy up to $1 billion, according to analysts.

If the strike only lasts for a few days, it won’t really be a big deal. But if it is an extended strike, major retailers such as Walmart and Home Depot will be facing massive supply chain headaches…

As the International Longshoremen’s Association port workers move closer to a strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, the union is warning that major importers such as LG Electronics, Walmart, Ikea, Samsung, and Home Depot will find no options to divert trade to Canada or the West Coast as other unions close ranks in support of its labor battle.

These companies are among the leading importers at the 14 major ports that an ILA strike would impact, according to ImportGenius. Overall, between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of dollars in trade monthly are at stake as the union moves closer to the Oct. 1 deadline for a new contract, over which talks between the union and ports management broke down in June and have not resumed. Cruise operations at ports would continue.

Joe Biden could have used a provision in federal law to delay the strike until after the election, but he has chosen not to do that…

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Sunday he did not intend to intervene to prevent a port strike on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico if dock workers failed to secure a new contract by an Oct. 1 deadline.

“It’s collective bargaining. I don’t believe in Taft-Hartley,” he told reporters.

Presidents can intervene in labor disputes that threaten national security or safety by imposing an 80-day cooling-off period under the federal Taft-Hartley Act.

This could end up being a colossal strategic mistake on Biden’s part.

If an extended strike causes serious economic turmoil as Americans head to the polls, that will not be good for the Democrats.

According to CNN, if there is an extended strike we could soon experience “shortages of chocolate, alcohol, popular fruit, including bananas and cherries, and even certain cars”…

Businesses have been nervously watching the 12:01 am Tuesday strike deadline approaching with little sign of progress toward a deal to avoid a strike of tens of thousands longshore workers. Many have been doing what they can to prepare for the shutdown – but there are limits.

It doesn’t make economic – or logistical – sense to ship many of the goods that come into East Coast ports by alternative ports of entry – or by plane.

That means America could see some shortages of chocolate, alcohol, popular fruit, including bananas and cherries, and even certain cars if the strike lasts a long time. That could mean higher prices for the goods that are available.

Of course that would just be the tip of the iceberg.

As we witnessed during the COVID pandemic, thousands of different products can be in short supply when there are major supply chain disruptions.

And once the strike is over, it may take some time to get supply chains back to normal…

As everyone discovered during the COVID-19 pandemic, container ports are a choke point in a supply chain as essential to daily life in the United States as water, electricity and telecommunications. Disruptions have a ripple effect throughout the economy and are exponentially compounded as goods pile up at ports, terminals, warehouses and other distribution points. So it takes longer to restart the flow of goods than it does to stop it. Considerably longer.

The devastation caused by Hurricane Helene is also going to have an enormous impact on supply chains.

Sadly, the storm caught the vast majority of the population off guard as it carved a path of “apocalyptic chaos” all over the South…

Apocalyptic chaos has struck down in the South as millions are left without power with desperate families lining up at gas stations and roving mobs steal generators.

The southeastern United States has been plunged into crisis as the aftermath of Hurricane Helene continues to wreak havoc across multiple states.

The storm has left a trail of destruction in its wake with the death toll rising to 64.

This is being called a “once in a generation” storm, and at this moment hundreds of roads in North Carolina and South Carolina are closed…

About 300 roads are closed in North Carolina and another 150 are closed in South Carolina, acting Federal Highway Administrator Kristin White of the US Department of Transportation said Sunday. North Carolina officials on Sunday acknowledged those closures have hampered delivery of water supplies to communities in need, like the city of Weaverville in Buncombe County, which is without both power and water, Mayor Patrick Fitzsimmons said.

Even the largest highways in the region have been devastated.

In fact, it is being reported that Interstate 40 is “impassable” right now…

Interstate 40 is impassable between Tennessee and Asheville, North Carolina, and beyond, because of catastrophic floods from the remnants of Hurricane Helene.

A mudslide and flooding have shut down the route.

What a nightmare.

As I shared with my core supports on Friday, recovery is going to be measured in years in some areas.

One official in North Carolina is even comparing the storm to Hurricane Katrina…

Towns throughout western North Carolina, including Swannanoa, were transformed overnight by the massive storm. Muddy floodwaters lifted homes from their foundations. Landslides and overflowing rivers severed the only way in and out of small mountain communities. Rescuers said they were struggling to respond to the high number of emergency calls. Anxious relatives took to Facebook to search for loved ones they hadn’t heard from.

“This is looking to be Buncombe County’s own Hurricane Katrina,” said Avril Pinder, the manager of the county, which includes Asheville.

This storm wasn’t supposed to be this powerful.

But after everything that we just witnessed, it is now being projected that the total damage from Helene could exceed 100 billion dollars…

Helene, a Category 4 hurricane when she hit the Big Bend of Florida on Thursday night, is forecast to leave behind between $95 billion and $110 billion in damage and economic loss. Property damage alone is forecast by Moody’s to run $15 billion to $26 billion.

Last year, the number of “billion dollar disasters” established a brand new record.

It appears that we will break that record this year.

But of course what we have been through so far is nothing compared to what is coming.

We really are living in apocalyptic times, and the chaos is just getting started…

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Business owners like Chris Butler are growing very concerned. Butler is the CEO of the National Tree Company, and, like many businesses, his is counting on shipments that are en route from Asia but won’t reach their ports before an expected strike by longshoremen starting at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday.

The company, based in New Jersey, is an importer of artificial Christmas trees and other holiday decorations. If a strike were to last just a few days, there might be time afterward to unload the trees, transport them to warehouses and have them ready for customers this season.

Yet if a strike were to keep ports closed until, say, November, about 150,000 trees might not arrive in time for the peak shopping season, imposing costs on National Tree and other businesses. In a worst-case scenario, those costs, multiplied across industries, could fuel inflation and pressure the U.S. economy.

“Definitely not an ideal situation,” Butler said.

National Tree already has stockpiled or delivered most of the roughly 2 million artificial trees it sells each year. But it would lose revenue if 150,000 of the trees got stuck in the pipeline.

Other businesses face the same predicament, with goods that could be stranded at sea if 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association make good on their threat to strike. They could shut down 36 ports from Maine to Texas that handle about half the goods shipped into and out of the United States. West Coast dockworkers belong to a different union and aren’t involved in the strike.

A prolonged strike would force companies to pay shippers for the delays, and goods could arrive too late for the high point of the holiday shopping season.

Now, after seemingly rushing to address every crisis, top Biden administration officials met with port operators on Friday and told them they should negotiate with the union ahead of Tuesday, according to a White House official who insisted on anonymity to discuss an ongoing meeting.

Butler says he’s hoping for an agreement or for government intervention to halt a strike. But the U.S. Maritime Alliance, which represents shippers and ports, and the longshoremen’s union haven’t met since June. No talks are scheduled before their contract expires late Monday.

“ILA unity remains strong and is growing,” James McNamara, spokesman for the International Longshoremen’s Association, said in a statement Sunday.

He said the union would update the public on any new developments by 11 a.m. Monday. The union is demanding significantly higher wages and a total ban on the automation of cranes, gates and moving containers in the loading and unloading of freight.

The Toy Association, the nation’s leading toy trade group, was among about 200 organizations that asked President Joe Biden in a letter this month to work with both sides to reach an agreement.

The National Grain and Feed Association also urged Biden to take action to avert a strike, which would come just as harvest season gets underway.

Their push has put Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, in a sensitive position: Both have courted union support and don’t want to be seen as pressuring the longshoremen to reach a settlement.

Yet if an extended strike were to cause shortages of consumer goods or fuel high inflation, it could cost Harris votes in the November election.

Under the Taft-Hartley Act, Biden could seek a court order to suspend the strike for an 80-day cooling-off period. Robyn Patterson, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement that the administration has never invoked the act and isn’t considering it now.

Biden and Congress did step in two years ago to block a looming freight rail strike and force those workers to accept a deal because of widespread fears that a rail strike would have damaged the economy.

Alex Hertel-Fernandez, an associate professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University who served as a Labor Department official under Biden, suggested that the administration will follow the playbook it used in talks last year between West Coast ports and the union there: Mediating negotiations without directly intervening.

Greg Ahearn, CEO of the Toy Association, said a strike would happen at a critical moment for toy sellers and makers: Up to 60% of annual sales occur from October through December. Though some toy companies shipped goods earlier, Ahearn said a strike would make it hard to replenish hot-selling items.

“A strike would raise toy prices Based on scarcity and increased costs,” Ahearn said.

At National Tree, Butler and his crew began preparing for a strike in July. They accelerated shipments for everything they could. But one major retail client, he said, asked for trees early. And until recently, factories in China and elsewhere couldn’t produce the rest of National Tree’s orders.

Ships containing the trees are on the way to New York but won’t get there before Tuesday. A prolonged strike, Butler said, would force most of the trees to be warehoused until next Christmas season.

A longshoremen’s strike would further distress a global supply chain that has already endured slowdowns from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on commercial shipping.

Those attacks have all but shut down the use of the Red Sea and Suez Canal, said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.

The attacks are forcing longer transit times for vessels that must navigate around the Cape of Good Hope to reach East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.

A dockworkers’ strike, Gold said, could prove even more damaging than the pandemic-induced port congestion in 2021 and 2022, when cargo was allowed to move, albeit slowly. Eastern ports could be left at a standstill. Gold noted that carriers are already announcing surcharges on containers to address potential disruptions, a trend that could elevate inflation.

Many retailers might find it difficult to charge customers more to make up for those expenses. Most vulnerable, Gold said, would be small businesses that don’t import directly and lack the financial resources to incur higher costs.

Shippers could reroute some cargo to West Coast ports. But those ports couldn’t come close to absorbing the additional cargo. The Port of Los Angeles, for example, moved 960,000 containers in August — about 80% of its capacity, said Gene Seroka, its executive director.

The major Western railroads, Union Pacific and BNSF, have added capacity to their systems to handle more freight as imports have increased.

Eastern railroads CSX and Norfolk Southern say they can move cars and crews to handle more freight coming to Chicago from the West. But it’s not clear just how much more the railroads can manage. In any case, Butler said, it would be too costly for him to ship trees across the country by rail.

Taylor Green, co-founder of landscaping company Artificial Grass Solutions in Los Angeles, which imports artificial turf, said he bought 25% more turf than usual to ensure there would be enough for clients’ projects. He also made arrangements with alternative suppliers in case the strike goes on indefinitely.

If it does, Green said, price increases would likely be necessary. Still, like some larger retailers and manufacturers, Artificial Grass says it’s better prepared for shortages than it was during the pandemic.

“We’ve learned to be proactive rather than reactive,” Green said.

At the heart of the issue is a labor dispute between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dockworkers, and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX), which oversees port operations. With negotiations deadlocked and the ILA threatening to strike on Oct. 1 and close 36 ports that handle over half of America’s ocean trade, the potential fallout could be far-reaching.

From consumer goods to critical industrial components, the labor action could cripple key supply chains, according to the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), which warned that a potential strike would halt operations at ports that handle over 68 percent of the nation’s containerized exports and 56 percent of imports, with an estimated daily trade value exceeding $2.1 billion.

Jay Timmons, NAM president and CEO, urged the White House to take immediate action as the strike deadline looms increasingly larger.

“If workers at East and Gulf Coast ports strike on Oct. 1, manufacturing supply chains will be thrown into disarray,” Timmons said in a statement on Sept. 27. “The Biden administration must step in to ensure we can keep the ports open and avoid disruptions to billions of dollars of goods that families rely on every day.”
This sentiment is shared by a growing number of businesses, industry groups, and lawmakers, all of whom fear the wide-reaching economic damage that could ensue if the strike moves forward.

Neil Bradley, Chief Policy Officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, warned that a port strike would have “a devastating economic impact, crippling major supply chains and cutting off the flow of numerous goods American consumers and businesses rely on every day” while urging the Biden administration, Congress, and all relevant parties to pursue negotiations until a deal is reached.

Bradley cited the impact of a similar 2002 disruption, which was estimated to have cost the economy $1 billion per day and took six months to recover from.

Costco’s CEO Ron Vachris said on the company’s Sept. 26 fourth-quarter earnings call that the company has been preparing for the potential strike for some time in an effort to minimize disruption.

“We’ve cleared the ports, we’ve preshipped. We’ve done several different things to get holiday goods in ahead of this time frame,” Vachris explained. While acknowledging that the strike could be disruptive, he noted that Costco has “looked at alternate plans” and remains focused on mitigating the impact, though the full extent will depend on how long the strike lasts.

Ryan Petersen, the CEO of logistics company Flexport, warned that a worst-case scenario of a strike lasting more than several weeks or even months could create “massive risks” for America’s economy.

“Rerouted shipments could overwhelm West Coast ports, creating container pile-ups, chassis shortages, skyrocketing transport costs, rail congestion, and an air freight market that’s already stretched thin,” Petersen wrote last week in a series of posts on social media.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said in a statement on Sept. 27 that the strike could have catastrophic consequences for the U.S. economy, potentially crippling supply chains and leaving “store shelves bare.”

Greene noted the broader economic context, saying that soaring inflation in recent years has squeezed U.S. households and that a port strike threatens to fan the flames of inflation.

“I think this situation is serious and could be a crisis going into the election, holidays, and winter—depending on if they strike and how long it lasts,” she wrote. “Retailers have been trying to stock up in preparation, but it’s always smart to be personally prepared just in case.”

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), ranking member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, wrote a letter to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on Sept. 24, calling on them to use the powers available under the Taft-Hartley Act to prevent the strike. The law allows the president to request a court order to delay strikes that threaten national safety or health.

The Biden administration has been urging both parties to continue negotiations.

Top officials, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, have also urged both sides to negotiate in good faith, a White House official told Reuters on Friday.