(Schiff Gold)—On the latest episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter dives into a week of new inflation data. He calls out the shaky foundations of the so-called “strong” economy, criticizes foreign central bank policy, and explains how inflation masks the benefits of economic growth.

To start, Peter reports alarming deficit numbers for the 2025 fiscal year:

During the first two fiscal months of 2025, because we’re already in that fiscal year, the budget deficit in those two months alone was six hundred and twenty four billion dollars. That’s a 65% increase over the same two months a year ago. In fact, the first time that the United States government ran a six hundred and twenty four billion dollar deficit for an entire year, not just for two months, but for an entire year, was 2009, right after the 2008 financial crisis.

These figures clash with the official narrative that the economy is doing well. If that’s really the case, why do the American people disagree?

If consumers were in the greatest shape ever, according to this Wall Street analyst, they would have voted for Kamala. They wouldn’t have tried to get rid of her because things are supposedly so awful, and they’re hoping that Trump would change things. … It’s like you’re lying in a hospital bed, plugged into all kinds of artificial life support, tubes in your mouth, tubes in your nose, blood going intravenously into your body, and you ask the doctor, ‘What’s going on?’ ‘You’re in great shape, absolutely perfectly healthy, except if we unplug anything you’re going to drop dead.’

A hotter-than-expected inflation report released on Thursday practically demands rate hikes from the Fed, but the market still predicts the Fed will cut rates at its December meeting:

All these numbers confirm is that inflation is bottoming out and is headed much higher, and it never got anywhere near 2%. Especially if you look at the PPI (Producer Price Index), which is a leading indicator for the CPI, because generally businesses have their prices go up first and then they pass it on to the consumer second. … The expectation for the increase in November producer prices was 0.3%, and we got 0.4%. That was double the increase from the prior month of 0.2%, so we’re heading in the wrong direction fast.

Current predictions place the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates again at over 95%. This is sadly aligned with the inflationary monetary policy being implemented in Europe and the rest of the world:

Yet the Fed is going to cut rates by another 25 basis points. By the way, the ECB (European Central Bank) cut rates 25 basis points this week, and the Swiss National Bank went for a super-sized 50 basis point cut… Inflation is going to rear its head in a big way all over the world: the Eurozone, Japan, all these countries that are cutting rates should not be cutting rates. Inflation is going to roar back stronger than ever, worse than what we had in 2001, 2002.

Central banks hoodwink their citizens with inflation, obscuring economic progress for the sake of their own policy goals:

Let’s assume that all else being equal the government doesn’t create any inflation and productivity is so good that prices would have fallen by 5. Well, that’s great. That’s a huge economic benefit for the economy. …  Now the government creates inflation and instead of prices going down by 5 percent they go up by 2 percent. Now you’re going to say oh well, there’s no inflation now because now we’re at the fed’s 2 target. No! Prices are 7% higher than they otherwise would have been. We didn’t get all that inflation for free. The government robbed us of that increase in our standard of living. They took away the benefit of those price cuts.

For more analysis of last week’s economic numbers, check out Joel’s analysis on the SchiffGold Gold Wrap Podcast.

Early in the interview, Peter laments the possibility that the United States will decline economically. China is poised to surpass our economy as the dollar continues to weaken:

“I think the media is constantly writing China’s obituary. And I think they’ve got it wrong. Just like they downplay the significance of the problems in the US economy, they overplay the significance of the problems of the Chinese economy. I’m not saying it’s perfect over there in China. But I think they have a lot going for them that people are overlooking.”

Michael and Peter discuss the role of U.S. foreign policy– specifically having a military presence around the world– in driving up deficits and the debt:

“We’re all over the world. We’ve got our troops all over the world, but we can’t afford to deploy them. We can’t afford to provision them without borrowing money, and that is not sustainable. I mean, it’s going to crumble. I don’t think the world is going to pay an ever-increasing tribute to the United States to maintain this situation. I think it’s going to come to an end. Yes, it’s gone on for a long time, and our military has probably been part of what’s enabled it.” 

With tension in the Middle East ratcheting up this week, Peter delivers a masterful explanation of why wars are terrible for the economy. The temptation to inflate combined with the physical destruction of productive goods mean wars inevitably impoverish all involved:

“You’re more likely to debase your currency with a war, and it’s actually twofold, depending on how big the war is. Wars can result in the destruction of goods, and there’s a destruction of productive capacity. So, you have less supply of goods in a war. A lot of times, if it’s a big war, you have to produce ammunition and military hardware at the expense of civilian consumer goods. So, wars tend to reduce the supply of consumer goods but increase the quantity of money. Governments today don’t want to pay for wars. They don’t want to tell the taxpayer, ‘We’re fighting a war, so we’re raising your taxes.’ … And they go out and borrow, creating bigger deficits. So, the Fed has to print more money.”

The trio also discusses Peter’s opinions on investments other than precious metals, including stocks and crypto. He argues that Bitcoin highlights the difference between large institutional investors and retail investors trying to cash in on a trend:

“Bitcoin peaked out in November 2021, and priced in gold, it’s almost 40% below that peak. Despite all that money spent, all that hype, all those ETFs in the market, all that institutional buying. So that tells you something. It tells you there’s a lot of people that have been selling their Bitcoin into all the hype. And I think the people selling Bitcoin are a lot smarter and know a lot more than the people who have been buying it.”

Peter is optimistic for the future of gold. With no end in sight for the Fed’s money printing, there’s a distinct possibility that gold’s price could increase by many multiples over the next couple of decades:

“I think the potential is much higher because we’re going to print so much money. We’re going to have so much inflation that the dollar is going to lose a lot of value, and you’re really going to need a lot of dollars to buy gold. If gold can go from $20 an ounce to $2,600 an ounce, it can go from $2,600 to $26,000, or even to $100,000. There’s no limit because, again, gold isn’t changing—it’s the value of the dollar that’s decreasing.”

Halfway through the interview, Peter also drops some trivia about his wife, Lauren. Did you know she both sang and acted in a 2022 Bruce Willis film? Check out the full recording (starting at 38:30) for the details!

Peter compares gold in 2024 to gold in 1979 but notes one key difference. In 1980, the Fed raised rates, putting a stop to gold’s rise. Rate hikes are highly unlikely after the Fed’s recent announcement:

“Gold is up almost 30% so far this year. Another all-time record high today, getting close to 2700 in the spot market. This is the best year that gold has had since 1979…

…A key difference between now and 1979? That was the end of the gold bull market. And in 1980, Paul Volcker raised interest rates up to 20%.

That’s what killed the bull and brought inflation down. But the current Fed is cutting rates. It’s going to cut rates more in 2025. So, gold is just getting started.”

A 50 basis point rate cut signals that either the Fed is scared of America’s economic future, or they believe we’re already in a recession:

“Well, the Fed is very desperate. I mean, normally they wait until there’s a problem before cutting rates.

They wait for a major stock market decline. They wait for a recession. But here, they’re cutting rates even before we’re officially in a recession and with the stock market at all-time record highs, with real estate prices at all-time record highs, and with the gold price at all-time record highs.

We’ve never had the Fed start cutting rates when gold was at an all-time record high. And in fact, the record high in gold proves that the Fed’s rate cut was a mistake.”

A lot of the data that supposedly portrays a healthy economy is corrupted by the pervasiveness of private and public debt. GDP growth is one example:

“The GDP is consumers spending borrowed money to buy more expensive groceries and stuff like that. The government spending borrowed money is a big part of that GDP. And we have a massive deficit that is a consequence of this fake GDP growth…

…We do not have a good economy. We don’t have a growing economy. We have inflation. And inflation creates the illusion of economic growth. But people are getting poorer, even though the numbers are going up again.”

For more Schiff insight and insight from the Austrian school of economics, watch a recent interview between Peter and Jason Burack, host of “Wall Street for Main Street.”

“If gold can go from $20 an ounce to $2,600 an ounce, it can go from $2,600 to $26,000,” he said.

But that took decades. The vast majority of Americans are concerned about what their finances are going to look like tomorrow… or even today. The current financial situation in the United States can be described as turbulent in the nicest of terms, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t those looking to the future.

They’re probably not looking at decades, though, as Genesis Gold Group CEO Jonathan Rose noted.

“I appreciate the sentiment and Peter’s right that gold could skyrocket over the years, but the people we talk to want to know what gold and silver will do next week, next month, and next year,” he said. “Even with the retirement accounts that we service, most are seeking safe haven for now and five to ten years ahead at the most.”

Genesis Gold Group is a faith-driven precious metals company that specializes in rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into Genesis IRAs backed by physical gold and silver.

Schiff compared today’s gold bull run to the 1970s. In that decade, gold went from $35 per ounce to over $800. He sees gold potentially hitting $3000 before the end of 2024 and possibly doubling in 2025.

“A lot will depend on what happens with the economy, especially with the port strike happening now and the election around the corner,” Rose continued. “Having physical precious metals in your safe or in a depository may be essential if things get extremely rocky in the markets, which seems likely at this point.”

Those who want to learn how to protect their retirement and life’s savings can request a free Wealth Protection Kit from Genesis.